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Ballot initiatives, close races draw increased interest in midterm races

Two political scientists expect Republicans to gain control of the U.S. Senate, and for close races in some local contests.

Iowa and Nebraska both have Congressional, Senate, and Governor’s races on the ballot. UNO Political Science professor Paul Landow expects the Second Congressional District race, between Democratic candidate Brad Ashford and incumbent Republican Lee Terry, to be very close.

“That one could come down to the last moment tonight or early tomorrow morning, it could be a two, three point race at the best, maybe even closer. A number of state legislative races are very close, hotly contested.”

Nebraska voters also had an initiative on the ballot to increase the minimum wage.  Voters in the Omaha Public Schools district will vote on a $421 million bond issue.

Meanwhile, Iowa is the site of a nationally-watched Senate race that could help determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

Democratic candidate Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst are running for the seat currently held by retiring Senator Tom Harkin. Outside groups have put millions of dollars toward that race.

Brad Best, professor of Political Science at Buena Vista University, says a Des Moines Register poll showed Ernst with a six or seven point lead over Braley.

“The other polls, however, suggest that the Senate race here in Iowa is much closer and much tighter than the numbers that the Des Moines Register is reporting.”

If Ernst wins the Senate race, she’ll be the first woman to represent Iowa in the U.S. Senate.

Best says another closely watched race is Iowa’s Third Congressional District. He says Tuesday’s results come down to two factors: the national mood and how it translates to choices made at the ballot box, and turnout.